Global food prices rise amid expectations of record grain production in 2025
- Al-Hawam News Editors
- Apr 25
- 2 min read
Increase in the World Food Price Index
The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reported that the global food price index increased by 1.6% in February 2025 to 127.1 points, which is 8.2% higher compared to the same month in 2024. The rise was driven by an increase in the prices of sugar, dairy products, and vegetable oils, although meat prices stabilized and rice prices declined.
Details of price movement in major sectors
Sugar: The price index rose 6.6% to 118.5 points, due to expectations of lower production in India and unfavorable weather conditions in Brazil.
Dairy products: Increased 4.0% to 148.7 points due to strong import demand.
Vegetable oils: The index rose 2.0% to 156.0 points, driven by higher prices for palm, soy, and sunflower oils due to supply constraints and increased demand from the biofuel sector.
Cereals: Prices rose 0.7% to 112.6 points, weighed down by declining Russian supplies and crop concerns in Eastern Europe and North America, while rice prices declined 6.8% due to ample supply.
Meat: Its price index stabilized at 118.0 points, with a slight decline of 0.1% due to lower poultry and pork prices, while lamb and beef prices stabilized.
Grain production forecast for 2025
Wheat: Global production is expected to reach 796 million tons, up 1% from 2024, boosted by improved planting in France and Germany, despite drought challenges in Eastern Europe.
Rice: A record production of 543 million tons is expected, driven by good harvests in India, Cambodia and Myanmar.
World Stocks: Expected to decline by 1.9% to 869.3 million tons by the end of 2025, with the stock-to-consumption ratio holding steady at 29.9%, indicating a comfortable supply situation.
Regional variations in crop forecasts
Africa: The north of the continent is suffering from drought, while favorable weather in the south supports improved yields.
Asia: Wheat production growth is expected to continue in the Far East, while the Near East faces a decline due to lack of rainfall.
Latin America: Corn crops are affected by weather changes in South America, while Mexico is facing a decline in cereal plantings due to drought.
Need for food aid
The report confirms that 45 countries, including 33 in Africa, 9 in Asia, 2 in Latin America, and 1 in Europe, are in need of external food aid. Ongoing conflicts are the main factor behind food insecurity, with populations in the Gaza Strip and Sudan facing advanced levels of acute hunger.
Comprehensive analysis of the agricultural market
The Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) has released a new report with a detailed analysis of market dynamics and wheat production projections for 2025, noting changes in global export dynamics and a projected decline in international grain trade of 5.6%.
Conclusion
The report points to rising food prices globally due to climatic and production factors, with a positive outlook for grain production in 2025, but risks associated with drought and conflicts may affect food stability in some regions.
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